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GBP/USD STICKS TO MODEST GAINS ABOVE MID-1.2500S, MOVES LITTLE POST-UK CPI

• UK inflation figures match consensus estimates and do little to provide any impetus.
• No-deal Brexit fears might hold investors from placing bullish bets and cap gains.
• Wednesday’s key focus will remain on the latest FOMC monetary policy update.

The GBP/USD pair held on to its mildly positive tone through the early European session on Wednesday and had a rather muted reaction to the latest UK macro data.

The pair built on the previous session's late rebound from the key 1.2500 psychological mark, or fresh multi-month lows, and gained some follow-through traction on Wednesday. The pair held steady around the 1.2570-80 region and moved little following the release of UK consumer inflation figures.

Data released this Wednesday showed that the headline UK CPI rose 0.3% in May as against 0.6% recorded in the previous month and the yearly rate eased to 2.0% from 2.1% previous. The readings were mostly in line with consensus estimates and hence, did little to provide any meaningful impetus.

The fact that Boris Johnson remains a leading candidate to be Britain's next Prime Minister and received 126 votes in the second round of Tory leadership contest on Tuesday, persistent fears of a no-deal Brexit held investors from placing any aggressive bets and might continue to keep a lid on any strong gains.

Investors also seemed reluctant ahead of Wednesday's key event risk - the highly anticipated FOMC monetary policy update, which might provide fresh clues over the central bank's near-term policy outlook and eventually drive the near-term sentiment surrounding the US Dollar.

Technical levels to watch

GBP/USD 0001-01-01T00:00:00

0/0 (0%)

H0 L0

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
1.2461	1.2484	1.2521	1.2580	1.2603	1.2640

Trend Index	OB/OS Index
Bearish	Neutral

News Courtesy: MQL5 NEWS

EUR/GBP FORECAST LIFTED TO 0.90 – DANSKE BANK

Christin Tuxen, chief analyst at Danske Bank, points out that they have lifted their EUR/GBP forecast from 0.86 to 0.90 and expect a higher trading range of 0.86 (in the event of renewed optimism on Brexit) to 0.91 (further weakening of data and worsening of sentiment on Brexit).

Key Quotes

“In the coming months, (1) we are neutral to somewhat positive on politics but worry that (2) global appetite for credit-like risk will continue to worsen, (3) noticing that UK macro is now surprising on the downside and (4) that ECB passiveness is leading to broad EUR strength. In our view, factors 2-4 are likely to weigh on EUR/GBP.”

EUR/GBP 0001-01-01T00:00:00

0/0 (0%)

H0 L0

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
0.8840	0.8866	0.8884	0.8927	0.8953	0.8971

Trend Index	OB/OS Index
Bullish	Neutral.

News Courtesy: MQL5 NEWS 

GBP/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: FAILURE TO CROSS 21-DAY SMA HIGHLIGHTS NEAR-TERM HORIZONTAL-SUPPORT

• 21-DMA, February lows limit immediate upside.
• Early-2019 levels regain market attention amid no surprises from RSI.
Other than February month low and recent highs, GBP/USD also lags behind 21-day SMA as it trades near 1.2700 ahead of the UK open on Monday.
With this, horizontal support connecting lows marked on January 02 and May 30 around 1.2580/75 gain market attention. However, 1.2670 and 1.2600 may offer intermediate halts to please short-term sellers.
In a case where prices slip beneath 1.2575, December 2018 bottoms surrounding 1.2480/75 could become bears’ favorite.
The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) flashes no extreme levels, which in turn can help extend the latest pullback.
On the upside, successful trading above 21-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 1.2720 enables the pair to confront 1.2760/75 region including February lows and multiple highs marked since early May.
It should also be noted that pair’s rise past-1.2775 enables it to question April month low near 1.2865.


Trend: Bearish


GBP/USD 0001-01-01T00:00:00

0/0 (0%)

H0 L0




S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
1.2621	1.2654	1.2696	1.2771	1.2804	1.2846




Trend Index	OB/OS Index
Bearish	Neutral

News Courtesy: FX STREET

EURUSD Rate Vulnerable to Dovish ECB Forward Guidance

   

TRADING THE NEWS: EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB) INTEREST RATE DECISION

The European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision may fuel the recent pullback in EURUSD as the Governing Council continues to pursue its monetary easing cycle.

The ECB meeting may influence the near-term outlook for EURUSD as there appears to be a growing discussion at the central bank to implement a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) on the Main Refinance Rate, its flagship benchmark for borrowing costs.

It seems as though the Governing Council will continue to rely on its non-standard measures to insulate the Euro-area as “slower growth momentum is expected to extend into the current year,” and a dovish forward guidance for monetary policy is likely to weigh on the Euro Dollar exchange rate as it boosts speculation for a more accommodative stance.

However, the ECB may merely attempt to buy more as the central bank prepares to launch another round of Targeted Long-Term Refinance Operations (TLTRO), and a more bullish scenario may materialize for EUR/USD President Mario Draghi and Co. stick to the same script.

IMPACT THAT THE ECB INTEREST RATE DECISION HAD ON EUR/USD DURING THE LAST MEETING

Period	Data Released	Estimate	Actual	Pips Change (1 Hour post event )	Pips Change (End of Day post event)
APR 2019	04/10/2019 11:45:00 GMT	0.00%	0.00%	-23	-5

April 2019European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision

EUR/USD 15-Minute Chart

As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) stuck to the zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) in April, with the central bank largely endorsing a dovish forward guidance as “the Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation continues to move towards the Governing Council’s inflation aim in a sustained manner.”

It seems as though the ECB will keep the door open to further support the monetary union as “the risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remain tilted to the downside,” and the Governing Council may continue to push monetary policy into uncharted territory as the central bank struggles to achieve its one and only mandate for price stability.

The Euro struggled to hold its ground following the dovish comments, but the market reaction was short-lived, with EURUSD bouncing back from a low of 1.1230 to close the day at 1.1274.

EUR/USD RATE DAILY CHART

• Keep in mind, the broader outlook for EURUSD remains tilted to the downside as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continue to track the bearish formations from earlier this year.
• Moreover, the near-term outlook mired by the failed attempt to hold above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1270 (50% expansion) to 1.1290 (61.8% expansion), with EURUSD failing to extend the series of higher highs from the previous week.
• In turn, a move below the 1.1190 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1220 (78.6% retracement) area raises the risk for a move towards 1.1140 (78.6% expansion), with the next downside region of interest coming in around the 1.1100 (78.6% expansion) handle.

NEWS COURTESY: DAILY FX